Journal Name: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific:
February 2004, Vol. 4, No. 1
Print ISSN: 1470-482X, Online ISSN: 1470-4838
Dyadic effects of democratization on international disputes (pp1-33)
Shuhei Kurizaki (Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.)
I explore the dyadic, as opposed to monadic, effect of democratization on war. Using a simple repeated game of interstate interaction, I show that, as a state shifts towards democracy, its citizens aquire more opportunities and become more willing to remove those leaders that they expect will reduce their welfare. Rational leaders anticipate this consequence, and their incentives to maintain cooperative relationships with other democracies increase as their states become democratic. The hypothesis drawn from the model predicts that democratization will have a pacifying effect in a dyadic relationship between democracies. Empirical testing is designed to isolate the dyadic effect from the monadic and to distinguish among competing hypotheses. The predictions are tested with widely used data on political institutions and militarized interstate disputes. The result shows that democratization indeed reduces the likelihood of waging war. However, this pacifying effect is largely attributed to the dyadic effect with a democratic opponent; the risk of war remains unchanged when facing a non-democratic opponent.
Deconstructing the ASEAN security community: a review essay (pp35-46)
Nicholas Khoo (Foreign Affairs University, International Exchange Center, Beijing, China.)
Once viewed as a bastion of stability and economic growth, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is now beset with a variety of seemingly intractable problems ranging from terrorism to internal secessionist conflict and economic stagnation. The central and evolving role of ASEAN in the international relations of Southeast Asia since 1967 raises the question of how we should conceptualize the organization. This review article argues that Amitav Acharya's recent claim that a nascent security community is emerging in Southeast Asia is flawed for at least four reasons. First, a variety of problems surround the independent variable – norms – that Acharya uses to explain ASEAN's emergence as a security community. The author fails to adequately explain why the norms he privileges emerged as ASEAN's dominant norms. The lack of a convincing explanation for the origins of the author's favored ASEAN norms is damaging because, prima facie, other kinds of norms – 'perverse norms' – appear to give us greater purchase in understanding the organization. Second, a critical flaw in Acharya's argument relates to its tautological nature. Third, from an empirical perspective, the dependent variable, the nascent ASEAN security community has arguably never existed. Finally, alternative explanations for ASEAN are not fully explored. While Acharya examines neo-liberal institutionalism and neo-realism, he overlooks the possibility that a form of realist institutionalism may most accurately explain ASEAN's history, and perhaps even predict its future.
China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance (pp47-72)
Gerald Chan (Centre of International Studies, University of Cambridge, UK and Programme of Political Science and International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.)
Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not China is a responsible member of the organization and how compliant China is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficulties faced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying to adjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theory of compliance in international relations from the perspectives of neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism, and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanisms used to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the United States and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanism and the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result is mixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China has been but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has tried hard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, though much remains to be done. The most severe tests will come in the next few years when China's financial and service sectors will have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.
Japan's conciliation with the United States in climate change negotiations
Isao Miyaoka (Osaka University of Foreign Studies, Department of International Studies, Osaka, Japan)
This paper attempts to analyze Japan's conciliation with the United States regarding national targets on greenhouse gas emissions in the multilateral climate change negotiations (1990–2001) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and for the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention. Japan's conciliatory proposals had nothing to do with bilateral pressure from the United States. Why, then, did Japan make special efforts to conciliate with the United States, and offer lenient proposals? I focus on three factors: concern for international status, the costs of the climate change regime and domestic politics. My main argument is that the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry used 'conciliation' with the United States in its favor as an excuse for making proposals that would emasculate the climate change regime and as a means of receiving support from the United States for differentiation of national targets on greenhouse gas emissions.
Okinawa: women, bases and US–Japan relations (pp97-111)
Yumiko Mikanagi (International Christian University, Tokyo, Japan)
The goal of this paper is to examine the process by which rapes and other acts of sexual violence lead to changes in international relations. This paper focuses on the rape of an Okinawan schoolgirl in 1995 because it presents a mysterious puzzle: given the changing international structural and epistemic environment, why did the US and Japanese governments fail to answer local calls for measures to prevent future rapes and other crimes by soldiers, perhaps by reducing the size of US forces deployed in Okinawa? By looking into factors that affected the decision-making process within the US and Japanese governments, this paper tries to explain why the issue of US bases in Okinawa evolved in the way it has since 1995.
China views the revised US–Japan Defense Guidelines: popping the cork? (pp113-145)
Paul Midford (School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University, Hyogo-ken, Japan)
This paper considers whether an alliance can have a reassurance effect on a third-party. It uses hypotheses derived from balance-of-power realism and a revised version of balance-of-threat theory called balance-of-malevolence theory. Using the revised 1997 US–Japan Defense Guidelines as a primary case, Chinese reactions are found to provide greater support for balance-of-malevolence theory. Side-evidence from Japan's decision in the early 1990s to begin deploying troops overseas to participate in humanitarian and UN peacekeeping operations, and its dispatch of naval ships to the Indian Ocean in the wake of 9-11, confirm the centrality of Chinese concerns about Japan's disposition as a military power and the reassurance value of the US alliance and other 'containment frameworks' such as UN peacekeeping. This also suggests that the demonstration effect of benign overseas deployments can be effective in overcoming negative attributions about a state's disposition as a military power.
Taking the 'taken-for-grantedness' seriously: problematizing Japan's perception of Japan–South Korea relations (pp147-169)
Taku Tamaki (Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, Japan)
The existence of acrimonious relations between Japan and its immediate neighbour, South Korea, is a familiar theme in the literature on the international relations of the Asia-Pacific. Public discourse in Japan treats this acrimony as the starting point for the formulation of diplomatic policy towards Seoul. While not suggesting that such an outlook is wrong, characterizing the bilateral relations as 'tough' has become 'taken-for-granted'. By focusing on the representation of Japanese collective identity within the public discourse, and treating it as a foreign policy speech act, this article argues that taking the 'taken-for-grantedness' seriously allows us to unpack the intersubjective structure of Japan–South Korea relations, enabling us to appreciate fully the recurring invective across the Tsushima Straits.
The birth of ANZUS: America's attempt to create a defense linkage between Northeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific (pp171-196)
Hiroyuki Umetsu (Independent Researcher, Niigata, Japan)
This article discusses the ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand and the United States) security treaty negotiations, with special emphasis on the 1951 Canberra talks, and examines why the US entered into a formal security alliance with Australia and New Zealand. It argues that the US concluded the security treaty with Australia and New Zealand in order to obtain their political support for a proposed American peace treaty with Japan, which would allow unconditional revitalization of Japanese military power. It is also the argument of this article that the US created ANZUS as a means of consolidating its own strategic position in Northeast Asia by committing Australia and New Zealand to the defense of US bases and forces stationed on the Japanese islands.
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific (2004)
Copyright ©2004 Oxford University Press and the Japan Association of International Relations
(This journal is available online at: http://irap.oupjournals.org/)
Posted with permission from the publisher.